Real Zero report confirms eliminating fossil fuels delivers stronger economies and lower costs

Global science and policy institute Climate Analytics has today released groundbreaking research ahead of COP30, demonstrating that Real Zero – the elimination of fossil fuels – is not only technically feasible for key sectors, but represents a far greater economic opportunity than continuing to burn fossil fuels.

A new report, ‘Real Zero: An Opportunity not a Cost’, finds that the world has reached a green tipping point. Firmed renewable energy is now the cheapest form of energy in nearly every corner of the world.

As the cost of renewables, batteries and other green technologies continues to fall, Real Zero offers major operational savings, while reducing exposure to volatile fossil fuel markets. 

The economics of Real Zero are clear across three sectors, according to the research, which finds:

• Heavy trucking (Europe): Battery-electric long-haul trucks are projected to reach cost parity with diesel equivalents by 2026 – a tipping point for zero-emission transport.
• Fertiliser (India): By 2026, green ammonia for fertiliser production will carry only a marginal cost premium over grey ammonia (made from fossil fuel) in parts of India, and by 2030 will undercut grey ammonia in renewables-rich regions.
• Steel (Japan): Green hydrogen-based steelmaking could be cheaper than fossil routes by the early 2030s – even sooner with modest carbon pricing – while scrap-based electric arc furnace production is already cost-competitive.

“The central claim we set out to test – does an economic rationale already exist for rapid achievement of Real Zero – is answered in the affirmative,” the Climate Analytics report concludes. 

“Real Zero mitigation options bring more opportunities when compared to BAU in the sectors analysed – on cost effectiveness, on reducing risk, and on enhanced energy and fiscal security. The task ahead is execution.”

Fortescue Executive Chairman, Dr Andrew Forrest AO, said the report provides clear evidence that replacing fossil fuels with zero emissions solutions makes economic sense. 

“Fossil fuels are no longer an economic necessity — they’re a financial liability. In sector after sector, the green option is now the cheap option,” Dr Forrest said. 

“This research confirms what we see every day at Fortescue – that eliminating fossil fuels makes solid commercial sense, even in the hardest-to-abate sectors.” 

Fortescue is investing US$6.2 billion to achieve Real Zero by 2030, eliminating the use of fossil fuels at its Australian iron ore operations. 

“The companies looking beyond their next quarterly result can already see it: eliminating fossil fuels isn’t a cost, but a huge opportunity,” Dr Forrest said. 

“We’ve reached a game-changing tipping point – renewables are now the cheapest source of power. 

“While politics has slowed the global energy transition, the economics have already overtaken it. Real Zero is the winning business case.” 

A companion study by Climate Analytics, ‘Real Zero: Delivering a fossil free future’, also shows that several major sectors – including trucking, steel, power and light duty vehicles – can reach Real Zero within the next 10 to 20 years. Even supposedly “hard-to-abate” sectors such as shipping can achieve Real Zero before 2050. 

Overall, the findings make clear that Real Zero drives innovation, lowers costs, and strengthens competitiveness, while Net Zero approaches such as offsets and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) do the opposite – increasing costs and risk. 

Real Zero builds structural resilience: stabilising costs, securing supply chains, and insulating economies from policy and market disruptions. 

The Climate Analytics reports were commissioned by Fortescue. 

Editor’s Note: The full reports can be found here.